Hyperion Research presented a forecast for the development of the quantum computing market. She estimates, based on the survey, that market participants’ revenues will be around $614 million in 2022 and grow to $1.2 billion in 2025, which means a 25% CAGR. Concerns about a possible “quantum winter” – the collapse / sharp drop in investment in quantum computing – turned out to be unjustified.
Current figures and forecast are based on a survey of 145 respondents from 18 different countries representing 108 quantum computing providers. When talking about the future of the market, Hyperion uses the term “estimates” rather than “forecast,” which is another sign of uncertainty in such a young market.
Analysts noted that uncertainty remains about which technologies will win, and also pointed to the need to improve methods for reducing or correcting errors, efficiently scaling quantum systems, and creating convenient development tools. At the same time, it is noted that there are only about five basic key algorithms for quantum systems on the market that are used in practice.
The quantum computing sector is still divided into two groups, one with good funding, fixed plans and a growing customer base. The second one is highly dependent on investments, having practically no income, and sometimes even works in stealth mode. 7% of firms surveyed by Hyperion Research expect revenue to exceed $10 million in 2022; 49% have income from quantum computing less than $500K, and 32% have no income from this type of activity.
Over the past year, several quantum startups have gone public with SPACs, including IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave Systems, and Quantum Computing, Inc. The economic downturn and the relatively poor performance of SPACs in general have slowed this process down. However, many startups still see going public or being taken over by larger companies as the ultimate goal.
According to Hyperion data and estimates:
in 2025, cloud solution providers (CSPs) will account for almost half of quantum computing revenues: revenues from the sale of quantum computing equipment will account for about 35% of the sector’s revenues; almost 75% of surveyed firms have partnerships, primarily for access to hardware and software for quantum computing, but also access to markets, verticals and “classic” IT expertise prevails; 108 companies participating in the study have a 60/40 ratio of public and private types of ownership; of the private firms-respondents, almost 40% do not plan to become public; the main end-user sectors of quantum computing include finance, research and development, and cybersecurity, but widespread use is expected in at least 18 other industries.
The Hyperion study noted the dominance of quantum computing revenues associated with cloud technologies. At the very least, most users interested in quantum computing will work indirectly with systems. The tendency of respondents to conclude partnership agreements was also noted. Even manufacturers of quantum computers with a full stack of solutions have acquired partners.
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