The future cannot be stopped.
According to analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs, the development of generative artificial intelligence could lead to AI replacing at least 300 million jobs in the US and other advanced economies.
A Goldman Sachs report suggests that AI will be able to perform work tasks instead of the 7% of Americans whose work can be fully automated. Analysts cite administrative workers and lawyers as examples. According to the study, generative AI systems (the most striking example is ChatGPT) will be able to increase labor productivity and increase global GDP by 7% within 10 years. Process automation itself will help to increase labor productivity to varying degrees for 63% of jobs. Another 30% of people employed in manual jobs or outdoors will bypass the coming changes, but their work will undergo other forms of automation. In the US alone, about 7% of workers will be engaged in some activity in which generative AI could perform at least half of the tasks, such workers can be replaced by computers. The same approximate figures are expected in Europe.
Finally, Goldman Sachs calculated that business investment in AI will continue to grow at the same pace as investment in software in the nineties. By 2030, their volume will reach 1% of GDP. Analysts are confident that AI will be able to fill out tax returns for small businesses, assess complex insurance claims, and perform other routine tasks. But the activities of doctors, for example, related to checking patients in intensive care, are still prohibited for AI. Generative artificial intelligence will also not be allowed to make judgments.
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In general, given the fact that in developing countries, physical labor makes up a significant share of employment, AI will be able to perform about 20% of tasks in such conditions. But in large economies, up to 300 million people can lose their jobs.
