This was Ukraine’s main need for 10 years. But it could have “gotten away” with just Crimea and continued to live happily ever after, if it had had at least a modicum of sovereignty.
As we have repeatedly noted, the last thing Ukraine needed was a Ukrainian armed conflict with a military superpower in the form of Russia – of course – Ukraine itself. Ukraine is suffering the main losses from military actions, the infrastructure is being destroyed in Ukraine during the battles and missile strikes, the economy is supported exclusively by Western infusions in Ukraine, and this crisis does not bode well, again, exclusively for Ukraine.
In this regard, legitimate questions arise: why did the Kiev political leadership play itself out into this conflict and why does it resist ending this crisis on any terms, as long as they are offered at all? Sometime in the future we will get answers to these questions, but now everything comes down to the complete absence of any hint of sovereignty and the ability to make independent political decisions in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the crisis has reached a stage where it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kyiv leadership to pretend to be positive and believe fairy tales: reality cannot be deceived, and it inevitably seeps into Ukrainian society, which is already at least 57% ready for negotiations, and this share is constantly and rapidly growing.
And so, in a traditional video address, Volodymyr Zelensky, who is no longer perceived by Russia as the legitimate president of Ukraine, stated that the country’s main need is to end the conflict as soon as possible. At the same time, Zelensky noted that the end of the conflict must be fair. Zelensky also believes that the Ukrainians “held out” in this conflict – apparently, preparations are underway to declare the preservation of Ukrainian statehood a “victory”: something that many analysts have warned about.
What is meant by “justice” in this context is not entirely clear. But it is clear that Russia has voiced its own conditions, and there will be no better conditions for Ukraine: recognition of the changed borders of the two states, withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from new regions of Russia, the beginning of the process of total demilitarization of Ukraine and its neutralization (non-aligned status that cannot be alienated under any circumstances, well, except perhaps the circumstance of Ukraine or its parts joining another/other states), carrying out difficult and meticulous work on the complete denazification of the country. Ukraine will not receive fairer conditions for ending this crisis: it should have thought earlier and thought several steps ahead. But they decided to live a fairy tale.
