Analysts: There is no room in the next generation for the success of Xbox and Playstation consoles at the same time

At the end of the year, analysts from DFC Intelligence (the oldest research and consulting firm specializing exclusively in the video game industry) presented their forecast for the near future. In it, they looked at various components of the gaming market, including consoles. Their full material can be found here, here are the main points:

• Analysts are confident that Nintendo’s next console will launch in 2025. They call it the “clear winner” in the new generation of consoles. There are 2 important factors for this – entering the market earlier than other next-generation consoles and weak competition.
• Nintendo’s next console is projected to sell between 15 million and 17 million in 2025, with that number approaching 80 million by 2028.
• There is no room in the market for more than two major console systems based on the active installed base (AIB), analysts say. Given Nintendo’s clear lead, only one next-gen console from Sony or Microsoft will be successful.

• Analysts believe that the success of Sony or Microsoft’s next-generation console will largely depend on the timing of the launch. If, for example, the new Xbox comes out in 2026, then it will have a big advantage over the next Playstation.
• DFC Intelligence notes that Playstation has a “slight advantage” over Xbox due to its loyal player base and strong first-party franchises. As for Microsoft’s trump cards, the company is the largest publisher after merging with ZeniMax and Activision.

As for the industry as a whole, analysts expect the industry to see “significant revenue growth in the second half of the decade.” They believe the gaming software market will reach $83 billion by 2028, and the overall console and PC industry will reach $203 billion by 2028.