China is 15 years behind ASML – unlikely to master EUV lithography before 2040

Since 2019, ASML of the Netherlands has been deprived of the right to supply advanced EUV equipment for wafer production to China. In fact, it has not supplied a single such lithography scanner, which allows it to produce 7-nanometer and more advanced wafers at a reasonable cost. UBS analysts firmly believe that Chinese manufacturers will not be able to independently master EUV technology until the end of the next decade.

Image source: ASML

Now, according to UBS ExpertAs early as 2004, the Chinese chip production equipment manufacturer was at the same stage of development as ASML. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers’ performance in the areas of development and patent law has led UBS to conclude that they are at a stage of preparation for mass production of EUV equipment, while ASML is still 15 years away from the expected milestone. As a UBS representative said, even if Chinese companies are able to start producing EUV equipment in the long term, there is unlikely to be demand outside of China. This will be hindered by ASML’s technological backwardness and possible regulatory hurdles.

At the same time, UBS said that Chinese companies are fully capable of mastering the mass production of deep ultraviolet radiation immersion lithography (DUV immersion lithography) equipment in the next two to five years. Last month, Reuters reported that one of the Chinese companies had begun producing such lithography systems. Their production will reach five this year and close to twenty by the end of next year. Reuters reported that Chinese developers allegedly assembled a prototype of the EUV system early last year. Indeed, it is not yet possible to produce a single wafer with its help, since the current form of installation only allows the formation of laser radiation of the required power and suitable wavelength.