For years, experts have warned that artificial intelligence could fundamentally change the labor market, making certain jobs significantly less expensive. As a result, many people may lose their jobs. A new study by US scientists shows that employment rates of young workers have fallen sharply in occupations most vulnerable to the impact of artificial intelligence. This trend has not yet affected older workers.
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Currently, in occupations “most affected by artificial intelligence,” the employment rate for workers aged 22 to 25 is 19% lower than their counterparts in other fields. Last year the gap was only 13%. The researchers obtained these metrics after analyzing a large sample of anonymous payroll data collected regularly by human resources management company ADP. The researchers assessed each occupation’s “exposure” to artificial intelligence using previous research and Anthropic’s Economic Index, which reflects the actual use of Cloud’s artificial intelligence assistant in daily work.
When analyzing data across the economy, the researchers found little difference in employment dynamics between occupations most and least affected by AI. However, in a separate analysis of workers aged 22 to 25, scientists found that employment of young professionals in the 40% of occupations most affected by AI has declined by about 11% since 2022. Conversely, in the 60% of occupations least affected by AI, employment of young workers increased by 10% during the same period.
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This phenomenon is mainly reflected in the slowdown in the recruitment of junior professionals in areas affected by artificial intelligence. At the same time, the researchers did not find a significant impact of layoffs and voluntary employee turnover; there were no reductions in wages. The nature of AI’s impact is diverse: in some professions it allows the automation of work processes, while in others it mainly supplements human work. According to the Human Economic Index, the first category includes accountants, auditors, secretaries and information service personnel. Artificial intelligence primarily complements human work in professions such as executive or registered nurse.
Not surprisingly, employment declines have been steepest among younger workers in highly automated occupations. Overall, artificial intelligence is needed for “Formal, standardized, recorded knowledge that can be acquired through education, textbooks, or written instructions“The opposite trend is observed in occupations where AI only supplements the ‘tacit’ knowledge of experienced workers, in the vast majority of cases”Acquired through practice, guidance, and repeated exposure to real-life situations». «Occupations with higher levels of normative knowledge have slower employment growth for entry-level workers, while occupations with higher levels of tacit knowledge have faster employment growth for middle- and senior-level workers.”, analysis of employment data shows.
Higher education was a significant protective factor. Among occupations with higher proportions of college graduates, the differences between areas with greater and smaller AI impact are subtle. Conversely, among occupations with a smaller share of college graduates, employment increased in fields least affected by AI, while employment decreased in fields most affected. The results obtained indicate that the spread of artificial intelligence has so far had the greatest impact on young specialists who have just entered the labor market, while the positions of experienced workers remain more stable.
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