It may take about a decade for Chinese wafer manufacturing to come close to ASML’s EUV lithography capabilities. This conclusion was reached by UBS analysts after comparing China’s current level of development with the technology of Dutch companies in the early 2000s.
The bank estimates that Chinese equipment manufacturers are still at roughly the same stage of EUV development as ASML was in 2004. The company subsequently tested vacuum systems and developed 45 nm wafer production technology and more modern processes, as well as mirrors and laser and plasma light sources for the 13.5 nm wavelength. Today, ASML has focused on high numerical aperture EUV systems with more advanced optics.
UBS selected state-owned SMEE and start-up Shanghai Yuliangsheng Technology Co., Ltd. among Chinese hardware developers based on patent analysis. At the same time, they should focus on the development of DUV lithography technology: in this field, according to the bank’s forecast, China can catch up with ASML in immersion lithography technology in two to five years. However, hysteresis in yield and equipment performance of suitable wafers will still exist.
At the same time, ASML will continue to rely on the Chinese market: China will account for about 33% of the company’s sales in 2025, compared with 10% before 2020. In a negative scenario, UBS assumes new restrictions on the supply of DUV equipment and estimates China’s share of ASML revenue in 2027 at 15-20%.
