Analyst firm TrendForce recorded that the processor supply situation improved significantly in the third quarter of 2026, but the continued rise in component prices continues to put serious pressure on notebook manufacturers. By the end of the year, global equipment shipments will decline more modestly than previously forecast, down only 9.4% year-over-year.
The supply structure has changed this year: the peak season has changed, and the supply distribution in the first half and second half of 2026 will be about 53% to 47%. To assess the impact of inflation, experts used a reference model of a $900 laptop from the first quarter of 2025. If processors, DRAM, and SSDs account for about 45% of the component mix at that time, that number will jump to 68% by the third quarter of 2026.
To maintain the same profit margins as parts costs continue to rise, manufacturers will need to increase the final cost of equipment by about 80% from the beginning of the year. So far, brands have been keeping prices down due to competition, steady business demand and inventory of parts bought at old prices.
