According to data from analyst firm TrendForce, the processor supply situation has improved significantly in the third quarter of 2026, which allows manufacturers to gradually normalize procurement and production. However, the continued rise in parts prices has further increased the pressure on notebook manufacturers. Global notebook computer shipments are expected to be higher than previously forecast in 2026, falling only 9.4% year-on-year.
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TrendForce analysts pointed out that the notebook shipment structure in 2026 is significantly different from previous years, where the peak season usually occurred in the second half of the year. The supply distribution ratio in the first half of 2026 and the second half of 2026 is expected to be approximately 53:47. Therefore, supply will start to decline in the third quarter.
To assess the impact of rising prices on laptop costs, TrendForce benchmarked a mass-market model with an MSRP of $900 in the first quarter of 2025, when memory supply remained stable. At that time, core components including processors, DRAM and SSD accounted for approximately 45% of system component costs. That share has grown to 68% by the third quarter of 2026, demonstrating how quickly rising memory and processor prices are changing the cost structure.
Continued quarterly price increases for processors, DRAM and SSDs are putting increasing pressure on manufacturers’ gross margins. TrendForce estimates that in order to maintain the same profit margins, brands will need to increase the price of such notebooks by approximately 80% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025. It can be seen that the impact of parts inflation on the retail price of notebook computers is gradually evolving from a simple cost increase to a continued price increase.
TrendForce pointed out that in the short term, brands may adopt a relatively aggressive supply strategy driven by competition for market share, new product launches, strong business demand, and inventory of parts purchased at lower prices. Pre-orders and this low-cost inventory can temporarily mitigate the impact of higher parts costs on retail prices and gross margins.
However, as the supply of cheap parts becomes exhausted, this price cushion will shrink. Going forward, product prices will increasingly reflect the current costs of processors, RAM and SSDs, which will force brands to choose between passing on increased costs to consumers or sacrificing some profits to maintain demand. The extent of retail price increases, changes in device refresh cycles and brands’ willingness to cut margins will be key factors in determining future market dynamics.
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