According to an analysis report by investment bank Piper Sandler, Amazon, Apple, AMD, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Nvidia and Qualcomm are exploring the possibilities of Intel’s 14A process technology. If negotiations between the two companies result in a manufacturing contract, Intel will be able to attract third-party customers and support its semiconductor contract manufacturing business. So far, not a single potential customer has made any concrete commitments.
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Intel has been trying to transform its manufacturing arm into a serious competitor to TSMC for years – and the decisive test will be the 14A process technology. The company needs to attract at least one “main” customer by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and increase production in 2028. The largest U.S. chipmakers have shown interest in new technologies: Intel’s technology performance is improving, TSMC’s production capacity is overloaded, and customers are looking to diversify production and expand chip packaging capabilities outside Taiwan.
TSMC remains a major contract manufacturer of advanced chips; its production capacity has shrunk until 2028. But that doesn’t mean Intel has received the order: An evaluation of the technology process has not yet decided to transfer production of key product lines to it. Lists of potential customers show Intel is negotiating with only those companies it needs. Today, American companies are looking to expand production in the United States. Supply chain risks are a growing concern; the country’s authorities have also called on the industry to increase domestic production capacity. Intel already has factories in the United States and is expanding production, but the justification for further investment will depend on customers’ willingness to place orders.
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Intel recently raised as much as $23 billion in funding, a move that analysts linked to the growth of the company’s contract business – funds that can be used to buy equipment for factories operating on the 14A process. The company’s designed production capacity is 20,000 wafers per month, and its equipment costs approximately US$10 billion. Construction of Intel’s Fab 62 factory is nearly complete and it now needs to be equipped with equipment. However, CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Intel does not plan to expand production of advanced technologies without clear signs of customer demand. If it is unable to attract large external customers or meet key obligations to customers, Intel may suspend development of 14A and subsequent technology processes – which will become ‘Economically unfeasible’.
At the same time, work on Intel 14A process technology is proceeding as planned; trial production will begin in 2028. At this stage, the first batch of wafers has been produced, tested and debugged before going into mass production. The approved timeline will enable 14A technology to compete with TSMC’s advanced processes. The Intel 14A name reflects the new “Angstrom Era” process naming system and is inherited from 18A. These names should not be taken as literal physical dimensions of the wafer components, so it is not always correct to compare technologies from different manufacturers, even if the names are similar. The key question is whether Intel can not only achieve customer evaluations of the technology but also sign contracts with customers – something the company has been doing since 2021.
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